Materials figures

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Jonathan Norman, Kate Scott and Jannik Giesekam

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Figure 1: Resource efficiency strategies. Results indexed to baseline output for each year

Others
Year Shift Transform
2020 1.00 0.99
2021 0.99 0.99
2022 0.99 0.98
2023 0.99 0.98
2024 0.99 0.98
2025 0.99 0.97
2026 0.99 0.96
2027 0.98 0.96
2028 0.98 0.95
2029 0.98 0.94
2030 0.97 0.93
2031 0.97 0.91
2032 0.96 0.90
2033 0.95 0.89
2034 0.95 0.88
2035 0.94 0.87
2036 0.93 0.86
2037 0.92 0.85
2038 0.91 0.84
2039 0.91 0.83
2040 0.90 0.83
2041 0.89 0.82
2042 0.89 0.82
2043 0.88 0.81
2044 0.88 0.81
2045 0.87 0.81
2046 0.87 0.81
2047 0.87 0.80
2048 0.86 0.80
2049 0.86 0.80
2050 0.86 0.80
Chemicals
Year Shift Transform
2020 1.00 1.00
2021 1.00 1.00
2022 1.00 1.00
2023 1.00 1.00
2024 1.00 1.00
2025 1.00 1.00
2026 1.00 0.99
2027 1.00 0.99
2028 1.00 0.99
2029 1.00 0.99
2030 1.00 0.99
2031 1.00 0.99
2032 0.99 0.99
2033 0.99 0.99
2034 0.99 0.98
2035 0.99 0.98
2036 0.99 0.98
2037 0.99 0.98
2038 0.99 0.97
2039 0.99 0.97
2040 0.99 0.97
2041 0.98 0.97
2042 0.98 0.97
2043 0.98 0.96
2044 0.98 0.96
2045 0.98 0.96
2046 0.98 0.96
2047 0.98 0.96
2048 0.98 0.96
2049 0.97 0.96
2050 0.97 0.95
Ammonia
Year Shift Transform
2020 1.00 1.00
2021 1.00 1.00
2022 1.00 0.99
2023 1.00 0.99
2024 1.00 0.99
2025 1.00 0.99
2026 1.00 0.99
2027 0.99 0.98
2028 0.99 0.98
2029 0.99 0.98
2030 0.99 0.97
2031 0.99 0.97
2032 0.98 0.96
2033 0.98 0.96
2034 0.98 0.95
2035 0.97 0.95
2036 0.97 0.94
2037 0.96 0.93
2038 0.96 0.93
2039 0.95 0.92
2040 0.95 0.92
2041 0.95 0.92
2042 0.94 0.91
2043 0.94 0.91
2044 0.94 0.91
2045 0.93 0.91
2046 0.93 0.91
2047 0.93 0.90
2048 0.93 0.90
2049 0.93 0.90
2050 0.92 0.90
HVC
Year Shift Transform
2020 1.00 0.99
2021 1.00 0.99
2022 1.00 0.99
2023 1.00 0.99
2024 1.00 0.98
2025 0.99 0.98
2026 0.99 0.98
2027 0.99 0.97
2028 0.99 0.97
2029 0.99 0.97
2030 0.99 0.96
2031 0.98 0.96
2032 0.98 0.95
2033 0.97 0.95
2034 0.97 0.94
2035 0.97 0.93
2036 0.96 0.93
2037 0.96 0.92
2038 0.95 0.92
2039 0.95 0.91
2040 0.94 0.91
2041 0.93 0.91
2042 0.93 0.90
2043 0.93 0.90
2044 0.92 0.90
2045 0.92 0.89
2046 0.92 0.89
2047 0.91 0.89
2048 0.91 0.89
2049 0.91 0.89
2050 0.91 0.89
Iron & steel
Year Shift Transform
2020 0.97 0.98
2021 0.97 0.97
2022 0.96 0.96
2023 0.96 0.94
2024 0.95 0.92
2025 0.94 0.90
2026 0.94 0.88
2027 0.93 0.85
2028 0.92 0.82
2029 0.91 0.80
2030 0.90 0.78
2031 0.89 0.76
2032 0.88 0.74
2033 0.87 0.73
2034 0.85 0.72
2035 0.84 0.72
2036 0.83 0.71
2037 0.82 0.71
2038 0.82 0.71
2039 0.81 0.70
2040 0.80 0.70
2041 0.79 0.70
2042 0.79 0.70
2043 0.78 0.70
2044 0.78 0.70
2045 0.77 0.70
2046 0.77 0.70
2047 0.77 0.70
2048 0.76 0.70
2049 0.76 0.70
2050 0.76 0.70
Non-ferrous metals
Year Shift Transform
2020 1.00 0.99
2021 0.99 0.99
2022 0.99 0.98
2023 0.99 0.98
2024 0.99 0.98
2025 0.99 0.97
2026 0.99 0.97
2027 0.98 0.96
2028 0.98 0.95
2029 0.98 0.94
2030 0.97 0.94
2031 0.97 0.93
2032 0.96 0.92
2033 0.96 0.91
2034 0.95 0.89
2035 0.94 0.88
2036 0.94 0.87
2037 0.93 0.86
2038 0.92 0.85
2039 0.91 0.84
2040 0.90 0.83
2041 0.89 0.82
2042 0.88 0.81
2043 0.87 0.80
2044 0.86 0.79
2045 0.86 0.79
2046 0.85 0.78
2047 0.84 0.78
2048 0.84 0.77
2049 0.83 0.77
2050 0.83 0.76
Paper
Year Shift Transform
2020 0.99 0.99
2021 0.98 0.99
2022 0.98 0.98
2023 0.98 0.98
2024 0.98 0.97
2025 0.97 0.96
2026 0.97 0.95
2027 0.97 0.94
2028 0.96 0.92
2029 0.96 0.91
2030 0.95 0.90
2031 0.95 0.88
2032 0.94 0.87
2033 0.94 0.86
2034 0.93 0.85
2035 0.93 0.84
2036 0.92 0.84
2037 0.92 0.83
2038 0.91 0.83
2039 0.91 0.83
2040 0.90 0.83
2041 0.90 0.82
2042 0.89 0.82
2043 0.89 0.82
2044 0.88 0.82
2045 0.88 0.82
2046 0.88 0.82
2047 0.87 0.82
2048 0.87 0.82
2049 0.87 0.82
2050 0.86 0.82
Non-metallic minerals
Year Shift Transform
2020 1.00 0.99
2021 0.99 0.99
2022 0.99 0.99
2023 0.99 0.99
2024 0.99 0.98
2025 0.99 0.98
2026 0.99 0.98
2027 0.99 0.97
2028 0.98 0.97
2029 0.98 0.96
2030 0.98 0.95
2031 0.98 0.95
2032 0.98 0.94
2033 0.97 0.94
2034 0.97 0.93
2035 0.97 0.93
2036 0.96 0.92
2037 0.96 0.92
2038 0.96 0.92
2039 0.95 0.91
2040 0.95 0.91
2041 0.95 0.91
2042 0.94 0.91
2043 0.94 0.91
2044 0.94 0.90
2045 0.94 0.90
2046 0.93 0.90
2047 0.93 0.90
2048 0.93 0.90
2049 0.93 0.90
2050 0.93 0.90

[Figure 1 ends]

Figure 2: Multiple of current demand

Material 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cement – baseline 1.00 1.05 1.12 1.19 1.28 1.39 1.51
Iron and steel – baseline 1.00 1.08 1.16 1.26 1.37 1.49 1.64
Other non-metallic minerals – baseline 1.00 1.04 1.09 1.14 1.20 1.28 1.37
Cement – Shift demand 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.14 1.21 1.29 1.39
Iron and steel – Shift demand 1.00 1.05 1.11 1.17 1.25 1.35 1.45
Other non-metallic minerals – Shift demand 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.10 1.14 1.20 1.27
Cement – Transform demand 1.00 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.70 0.74
Iron and steel – Transform demand 1.00 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.81
Other non-metallic minerals – Transform demand 1.00 0.44 0.44 0.46 0.47 0.49 0.52

[Figure 2 ends]

Figure 3: Emissions reductions, MtCOe

Scenario 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Reference 60.33533 60.28757 60.8065 61.57275 62.89462 64.87788 67.2493
Shift 60.33533 59.00559 58.25262 57.28608 56.76942 57.29601 58.68787
Transform 60.33533 51.21066 48.25091 45.82478 44.75968 44.89783 45.59678

[Figure 3 ends]