Mobility figures

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Christian Brand, Jillian Anable and Greg Marsden

Download data for The role of energy demand reduction: Mobility report figures (xlsx, 32 KB. May not be suitable for users of assistive technology).

Figure a:

Aviation (international) Ignore Shift Transform
2012 300 300 300
2013 303 303 303
2014 308 308 308
2015 313 313 313
2016 315 315 315
2017 318 318 318
2018 321 321 321
2019 324 324 324
2020 164 164 164
2021 198 198 198
2022 233 214 198
2023 269 230 197
2024 288 245 194
2025 307 243 187
2026 309 242 183
2027 311 241 180
2028 314 240 177
2029 316 241 178
2030 318 242 178
2031 320 242 177
2032 322 243 178
2033 324 244 179
2034 325 245 180
2035 327 246 180
2036 329 247 181
2037 331 248 182
2038 332 249 182
2039 334 250 183
2040 336 251 184
2041 338 252 185
2042 340 253 186
2043 342 254 186
2044 344 255 187
2045 345 255 188
2046 347 256 188
2047 349 257 189
2048 351 258 190
2049 353 259 190
2050 355 259 191

[Figure a ends]

Figure 1

Year Energy (PJ) Gasoline Diesel Electricity
2015 Ignore 703 850 15.3
2025 Ignore 591 828 26.1
Shift 474 741 39.3
Transform 389 682 49
2030 Ignore 553 743 38.1
Shift 310 575 82.1
Transform 195 462 101.4
2040 Ignore 475 645 58.4
Shift 95 322 205
Transform 65 218 201.5
2050 Ignore 425 596 63.2
Shift 50 190 241.5
Transform 57 154 203.1

[Figure 1 ends]

Figure 2

Scenario Ignore Shift Transform
Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050
Car 66.59 27.66 5.5 0.08 14.37 1.1 0
Bus 3.06 4.92 4.77 4.2 5.76 5.52 4.78
Motorcycle 0.48 1.82 2.7 3.59 3.21 3.67 4.12
Road freight 38.13 28.13 17.39 10.83 22.63 10.6 8.26
Rail (diesel only) 1.81 1.7 1.46 1.45 1.83 1.53 1.49
Aviation (domestic) 0.74 0.52 0.27 0.05 0.43 0.18 0.01
Shipping (domestic) 4.97 4.78 4.71 4.71 4.78 4.71 4.71

[Figure 2 ends]

Figure 3

Shift
Distance and occupancy 2012 2017 2030 2050
Ave car miles per person (driver + passenger) 5120 5104 3749 3101
Ave car occupancy 1.55 1.56 1.83 1.94
Transform
Distance and occupancy 2012 2017 2030 2050
Ave car miles per person (driver + passenger) 5120 5104 2896 2310
Ave car occupancy 1.55 1.56 1.90 2.10

[Figure 3 ends]

Figure 4

Shift
Mode 2012 2017 2030 2050
Car/ van driver 41% 40% 28% 17%
Car/ van passenger 22% 21% 22% 16%
Other private (= Car Clubs) 1% 1% 2% 3%
Local Bus (incl. London) 6% 6% 8% 10%
Underground/light rail 1% 1% 2% 4%
Distance bus/ coach 0% 0% 0% 1%
Rail (surface) 2% 2% 3% 4%
Walk 24% 26% 28% 30%
Cycling (conventional) 2% 2% 4% 6%
Motorcycle + E-Bikes 0% 0% 2% 5%
Taxi + Uber 1% 1% 2% 4%
Transform
Mode 2012 2017 2030 2050
Car/ van driver 41% 40% 20% 11%
Car/ van passenger 22% 21% 18% 11%
Other private (= Car Clubs) 1% 1% 3% 5%
Local Bus (incl. London) 6% 6% 9% 9%
Underground/light rail 1% 1% 2% 5%
Distance bus/ coach 0% 0% 0% 1%
Rail (surface) 2% 2% 3% 5%
Walk 24% 26% 32% 35%
Cycling (conventional) 2% 2% 6% 8%
Motorcycle + E-Bikes 0% 0% 3% 6%
Taxi + Uber 1% 1% 2% 3%

[Figure 4 ends]

Figure 5

Mode Ignore Shift Transform
2017 2030 2050 2030 2050
Car/ van driver 50% 32% 23% 23% 16%
Car/ van passenger 28% 26% 26% 25% 24%
Other private (= Car Clubs) 1% 7% 10% 9% 13%
Local Bus (incl. London) 4% 6% 7% 6% 7%
Underground/light rail 2% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Distance bus / coach 1% 2% 3% 3% 3%
Rail (surface) 8% 12% 13% 13% 15%
Walk 3% 4% 4% 4% 5%
Cycling (conventional) 1% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Motorcycle + E-Bikes 1% 2% 4% 4% 5%
Taxi + Uber 1% 4% 3% 4% 4%

[Figure 5 ends]

Figure 6

Mode Shift Transform
2030 2050 2030 2050
Average car miles per person (driver + passenger) -27% -39% -39% -50%
Average ALL car miles per person (driver + passenger + car club + Uber) -16% -26% -25% -32%

[Figure 6 ends]

Figure 7

Shift
Year Commuting Business Long distance leisure Local leisure School Shopping Personal business Other All
2015 96 103 94 85 89 97 97 84 92
2016 98 110 95 91 91 98 96 90 95
2017 98 91 101 90 95 102 103 94 97
2018 99 100 97 98 99 102 100 99 99
2019 99 100 98 99 100 101 100 99 100
2020 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2021 100 100 101 101 100 99 100 100 100
2022 101 100 103 102 101 98 100 101 101
2023 101 99 104 103 101 97 100 101 101
2024 102 99 106 104 101 96 99 102 101
2025 102 99 108 106 101 94 99 102 101
2026 102 99 109 107 102 93 99 103 102
2027 103 98 111 108 102 92 99 103 102
2028 103 98 112 109 102 91 99 103 102
2029 103 97 114 110 102 90 99 104 102
2030 103 97 115 111 102 89 98 104 102
2031 104 97 116 112 102 88 99 104 103
2032 104 97 117 113 102 88 99 105 103
2033 104 96 118 114 102 88 100 105 104
2034 105 96 119 115 102 87 100 105 104
2035 105 96 120 116 102 87 101 106 104
2036 106 96 121 116 103 87 101 106 104
2037 106 96 121 117 103 86 101 106 105
2038 106 96 122 118 103 86 101 106 105
2039 107 96 123 118 103 85 101 107 105
2040 107 96 123 119 103 85 101 107 105
2041 108 96 124 120 103 84 102 107 106
2042 108 96 125 120 104 84 102 107 106
2043 109 96 125 121 104 83 101 108 106
2044 109 96 126 122 104 83 102 108 106
2045 110 96 127 123 105 83 102 109 107
2046 110 96 128 123 105 82 102 109 107
2047 111 96 129 124 105 82 102 109 107
2048 111 96 130 125 106 81 102 110 108
2049 112 96 130 126 106 81 102 110 108
2050 113 96 131 127 106 81 103 111 108
Transform
Year Commuting Business Long distance leisure Local leisure School Shopping Personal business Other All
2015 99 104 94 85 89 98 98 84 93
2016 100 110 94 91 91 100 96 90 95
2017 101 92 100 90 95 104 104 94 98
2018 101 101 96 98 99 104 101 99 100
2019 101 100 98 99 100 102 100 99 100
2020 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2021 99 100 102 101 100 98 99 100 100
2022 98 99 104 102 101 96 99 101 100
2023 98 99 106 103 101 94 98 101 100
2024 97 98 108 104 101 92 98 102 100
2025 96 97 110 106 101 90 97 102 100
2026 95 97 112 107 102 88 96 103 100
2027 94 96 114 108 102 86 96 103 100
2028 93 95 116 109 102 84 95 103 100
2029 92 94 118 110 102 82 94 104 99
2030 91 93 120 111 102 80 93 104 99
2031 91 93 121 113 102 80 94 104 100
2032 91 93 121 114 102 80 94 105 100
2033 91 92 122 115 102 79 95 105 100
2034 91 92 123 116 102 79 95 105 100
2035 91 91 124 117 102 79 95 106 101
2036 91 91 124 118 103 78 96 106 101
2037 91 90 125 119 103 78 96 106 101
2038 90 90 125 120 103 77 96 106 101
2039 90 89 126 121 103 77 96 107 101
2040 91 89 126 122 103 77 96 107 102
2041 91 89 127 123 103 76 96 107 102
2042 91 88 127 124 104 76 96 107 102
2043 91 88 128 124 104 75 96 108 102
2044 91 88 128 125 104 75 96 108 102
2045 91 87 129 127 105 74 96 109 103
2046 91 87 130 128 105 74 97 109 103
2047 91 87 130 129 105 73 97 109 103
2048 91 86 131 130 106 73 97 110 103
2049 91 86 132 131 106 73 97 110 104
2050 92 85 132 132 106 72 97 111 104

[Figure 7 ends]

Figure 8

Shift
Mode 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Car (car as driver, car as passenger, taxi/Uber) 529.75 544.68 545.67 496.27 442.79 432.48 417.98 403.23 390.16
Bus (urban, coach, mini) 46.33 46.84 47.22 77.94 110.18 120.38 130.64 141.04 152.07
2-Wheel (motorbike, e-bike) 3.95 4.11 4.08 9.93 15.89 19.81 23.62 27.46 31.41
Train (intercity, regional, high speed, urban) 72.37 75.47 74.75 93.10 110.89 115.64 120.20 125.09 130.31
Aviation (domestic) 2.98 3.10 3.02 2.89 2.81 2.76 2.70 2.65 2.60
Aviation (international) 300.33 312.60 245.48 240.02 241.56 246.10 251.04 255.38 259.13
NMT (walking, cycling) 21.87 21.86 22.64 28.86 35.03 36.98 38.81 40.72 42.79
Transform
Mode 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Car (car as driver, car as passenger, taxi/Uber) 529.75 544.68 539.23 445.88 351.50 342.49 329.47 316.43 305.11
Bus (urban, coach, mini) 46.33 46.84 46.67 88.27 130.34 140.24 150.21 160.23 170.86
2-Wheel (motorbike, e-bike) 3.95 4.11 4.01 16.55 28.23 30.45 32.35 34.26 36.32
Train (intercity, regional, high speed, urban) 72.37 75.47 73.62 100.32 123.51 126.47 129.26 132.33 135.74
Aviation (domestic) 2.98 3.10 2.97 2.57 2.39 2.30 2.20 2.10 2.01
Aviation (international) 300.33 312.60 242.22 187.27 177.71 180.19 184.03 187.66 190.68
NMT (walking, cycling) 21.87 21.86 22.35 30.73 38.60 39.57 40.38 41.25 42.26

[Figure 8 ends];

Figure 9

International aviation 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Ignore 300.33 312.60 248.74 296.71 318.18 326.91 336.26 345.40 355.11
Shift 300.33 312.60 245.48 240.02 241.56 246.10 251.04 255.38 259.13
Transform 300.33 312.60 242.22 187.27 177.71 180.19 184.03 187.66 190.68

[Figure 9 ends]

Figure 10

Shift
Mode 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
LGVs 66.4 75.5 86.89 88.19 87.39 95.47 103.86 111.54 118.35
HGVs – Rigid 11.78 12.63 13.18 12.74 12.09 12.57 13.09 13.63 14.17
HGVs – Artic 13.22 14.17 14.79 14.3 13.57 14.1 14.69 15.29 15.9
Rail 0.071 0.075 0.079 0.084 0.089 0.093 0.097 0.101 0.104
Shipping (domestic), coastal and inland 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004
Aviation (domestic) 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.004 0.004
Aviation (international) 0.196 0.206 0.216 0.214 0.215 0.224 0.234 0.243 0.252
Transform
Mode 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
LGVs 66.4 75.5 86.89 84.62 80.07 87.11 94.42 101.06 106.73
HGVs – Rigid 11.78 12.63 13.18 12.23 11.08 11.47 11.9 12.35 12.78
HGVs – Artic 13.22 14.17 14.79 13.72 12.43 12.87 13.36 13.86 14.34
Rail 0.071 0.075 0.079 0.084 0.089 0.093 0.097 0.101 0.104
Shipping (domestic), coastal and inland 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004
Aviation (domestic) 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003
Aviation (international) 0.196 0.206 0.216 0.205 0.195 0.203 0.213 0.222 0.231

[Figure 10 ends]

Figure 11

Year Ignore Shift Transform
2012 29.18 29.18 29.18
2013 29.49 29.49 29.49
2014 29.78 29.78 29.78
2015 30.26 30.26 30.26
2016 30.48 30.48 30.48
2017 30.59 30.59 30.59
2018 30.93 30.93 30.93
2019 31.22 31.22 31.24
2020 31.44 31.45 31.49
2021 31.54 31.23 31.09
2022 31.64 31.02 30.73
2023 31.74 30.79 30.36
2024 31.84 30.56 29.99
2025 32.04 30.42 29.72
2026 32.09 30.14 29.31
2027 32.18 29.91 28.91
2028 32.24 29.60 28.47
2029 32.28 29.23 28.00
2030 32.39 28.93 27.57
2031 32.48 28.77 27.33
2032 32.54 28.60 27.04
2033 32.60 28.42 26.74
2034 32.66 28.18 26.45
2035 32.80 28.04 26.26
2036 32.86 27.75 26.00
2037 32.92 27.47 25.75
2038 32.98 27.10 25.35
2039 33.05 26.82 25.09
2040 33.17 26.60 24.89
2041 33.23 26.34 24.65
2042 33.30 26.09 24.41
2043 33.36 25.84 24.20
2044 33.45 25.63 24.01
2045 33.61 25.48 23.89
2046 33.70 25.29 23.73
2047 33.80 25.11 23.59
2048 33.89 24.95 23.47
2049 33.99 24.81 23.37
2050 34.09 24.68 23.30

[Figure 11 ends]