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Chapter 2

Figure 2a

Year Total energy demand, Ktoe
1970 145977
1971 143589
1972 146205
1973 153744
1974 146818
1975 140751
1976 144407
1977 147444
1978 149146
1979 155521
1980 142394
1981 138346
1982 136726
1983 136111
1984 135753
1985 141867
1986 145719
1987 146132
1988 148569
1989 146180
1990 147268
1991 151818
1992 151091
1993 152747
1994 152548
1995 150384
1996 157019
1997 153902
1998 155921
1999 156534
2000 159365
2001 160926
2002 156476
2003 158147
2004 159936
2005 159676
2006 157042
2007 154259
2008 154156
2009 144241
2010 150496
2011 138587
2012 142330
2013 142989
2014 135609
2015 139372
2016 141446
2017 141170
2018 143352
2019 141951

[Figure 2a ends]

Figure 2b: Energy demand by sector, Ktoe

Year Agriculture Domestic Public administration Commercial Industry Transport
1970 1890 36884 8700 7997 62333 28174
1971 1996 35621 8617 7302 60746 29306
1972 2139 36261 8789 7267 61307 30442
1973 2225 37576 8963 7398 65149 32435
1974 1882 38002 8355 7254 60058 31266
1975 1842 37062 8130 7387 55444 30885
1976 1751 36634 8705 7700 57584 32032
1977 1852 37898 9310 7935 57574 32875
1978 1845 38689 9212 8156 56673 34571
1979 1845 41566 9552 8635 58564 35359
1980 1497 39841 8926 8299 48291 35541
1981 1404 39674 8826 8363 45776 34304
1982 1406 39218 8668 8391 44007 35037
1983 1426 39014 8808 8612 42191 36059
1984 1386 37896 8809 8743 41138 37782
1985 1421 42062 8916 9264 41702 38500
1986 1424 43700 8927 9784 40931 40954
1987 1371 43460 8577 9842 40211 42672
1988 1424 42367 8318 10308 40807 45345
1989 1338 40258 7529 10208 39405 47442
1990 1343 40756 7556 10319 38660 48635
1991 1368 44768 8162 11290 38257 47973
1992 1356 44066 8734 10870 36711 49355
1993 1379 45549 8134 11221 36440 50024
1994 1371 43947 8258 11008 37711 50253
1995 1332 42691 8535 11312 36276 50238
1996 1427 48120 8793 11888 34470 52321
1997 1345 44775 8417 11706 34577 53083
1998 1359 46126 8141 12011 34512 53772
1999 1287 46121 8215 11836 34222 54853
2000 1216 46851 8090 12241 35506 55461
2001 1286 48178 8045 12836 35443 55137
2002 1189 47471 7022 11345 33764 55685
2003 949 48293 6709 11756 34074 56366
2004 906 49333 7184 12227 32912 57374
2005 1007 47805 7098 12669 32303 58793
2006 917 46575 6621 11985 31442 59501
2007 907 44932 6346 11763 30540 59771
2008 914 45998 6524 13107 30220 57393
2009 869 44685 5986 11621 25687 55394
2010 965 49410 6241 12233 27011 54636
2011 917 40883 5507 11533 25254 54493
2012 980 44441 5988 12269 24876 53776
2013 1085 44891 6079 12555 24889 53490
2014 1282 38680 5538 11661 24302 54146
2015 1033 40281 5339 13401 24305 55013
2016 1542 41145 5824 14451 22483 56001
2017 1520 39837 5603 14399 22808 57003
2018 1484 41633 5699 14720 22933 56884
2019 1505 41289 5579 14615 22298 56665

[Figure 2b ends]

Chapter 4

Figure 7: GHG emissions by sector, MtCO2e

Sector Baseline 2015 Steer 2050 Shift 2050 Transform 2050
Agriculture 45.9 23.54 18.54 14.80
Residential 78.8 1.23 1.99 1.59
Non-domestic 34.2 0.13 1.11 1.30
Transport 171.2 36.55 15.62 14.35
Industry 73.7 5.06 3.20 1.75
Process 51.1 -2.64 12.62 12.57
Hydrogen production 0.0 0.69 1.64 1.31
Electricity generation 107.2 -43.72 -37.26 -2.39
Upstream 9.8 0.11 0.18 0.17
Landuse & forestry 10.9 1.57 -21.42 -48.95
Emissions gap – -26.60 – –

[Figure 7 ends]

Figure 8: Total final energy consumption, petajoules

Scenario 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Reduction
Ignore 6,628 6,551 6,142 6,176 6,041 5,932 5,927 5,883 5,840 5%
Steer 6,628 6,551 6,142 5,988 5,438 4,830 4,530 4,360 4,273 31%
Shift 6,628 6,540 6,114 5,701 4,991 4,382 4,044 3,768 3,636 41%
Transform 6,628 6,540 6,114 5,334 4,495 3,854 3,500 3,199 2,942 52%

[Figure 8 ends]

Figure 9: Energy consumption relative to 2020 levels

Year Scenario Sector
/ / Agriculture Industry Non-domestic Residential Transport
2020 Ignore 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Steer 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Shift 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Transform 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2030 Ignore -12% -6% 1% -5% 3%
Steer -30% -10% -10% -6% -17%
Shift -10% -12% -16% -10% -30%
Transform -13% -20% -24% -16% -40%
2040 Ignore -33% -4% 8% -3% -7%
Steer -42% -13% -22% -13% -46%
Shift -46% -19% -31% -19% -56%
Transform -46% -29% -43% -30% -61%
2050 Ignore -35% 1% 22% -1% -20%
Steer -47% -8% -22% -26% -50%
Shift -54% -13% -34% -36% -63%
Transform -62% -26% -48% -52% -68%

Total:

Scenario 2030 2040 2050
Ignore -2% -4% -5%
Steer -11% -26% -30%
Shift -18% -34% -41%
Transform -26% -43% -52%

[Figure 9 ends]

Figure 11: Power generation, TWh

Steer
Process Set 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imports 2.9 23.8 24.1 24.7 24.7 33.4 36.9 42.6 46.9
CHP 10.7 6.6 3.7 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Geothermal – – 0.0 0.0 8.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0
Hydro 3.6 5.3 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Solar PV 0.1 9.2 13.3 15.0 30.5 52.4 67.8 84.1 104.7
Tidal – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wave – – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Offshore wind 3.0 20.2 43.4 105.5 166.1 215.8 259.4 276.0 276.2
Onshore wind 7.1 24.2 41.9 84.1 122.1 156.7 183.3 203.3 203.3
Nuclear 62.1 74.1 70.2 60.4 56.9 88.5 79.0 108.9 120.8
H2 – – 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.4
BECCS – – – – 8.0 19.3 24.7 37.5 45.9
Bioenergy 6.2 6.9 6.9 5.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oil CCS – – – – 0.0 1.5 0.0 12.3 13.2
Oil 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS – – – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS (Retr.) – – – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas 143.0 74.1 92.1 11.9 9.7 14.1 10.6 4.7 0.0
Man. fuels 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.0
Coal 98.9 75.9 0.9 – – – – – –
Shift
Process Set 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imports 2.9 23.8 24.1 24.7 24.7 27.6 31.9 37.0 47.8
CHP 10.7 6.6 3.7 5.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Geothermal – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 3.6 5.3 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Solar PV 0.1 9.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 27.1 42.5 58.8 81.1
Tidal – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wave – – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Offshore wind 3.0 20.2 43.4 105.5 166.1 177.1 189.2 205.8 206.0
Onshore wind 7.1 24.2 41.9 41.9 79.9 114.4 141.1 169.0 203.3
Nuclear 62.1 74.1 70.2 36.7 22.8 25.3 25.3 25.3 56.9
H2 – – 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.7
BECCS – – – – 8.0 20.8 28.9 42.5 50.1
Bioenergy 6.2 6.9 6.9 5.9 2.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oil CCS – – – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oil 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS – – – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
Gas CCS (Retr.) – – – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas 143.0 74.1 92.1 45.4 6.2 5.9 1.8 0.0 0.0
Man. fuels 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Coal 98.9 75.9 0.9 – – – – – –
Transform
Process Set 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imports 2.9 23.8 24.1 24.7 24.7 24.7 26.9 36.6 43.5
CHP 10.7 6.6 3.7 5.1 4.3 0.2 1.4
Geothermal – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 3.6 5.3 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Solar PV 0.1 9.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 23.5 39.8 62.0
Tidal – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wave – – – – – – – –
Offshore wind 3.0 20.2 43.4 105.5 166.1 166.7 166.7 168.0 168.1
Onshore wind 7.1 24.2 41.9 41.9 42.6 77.2 103.9 131.8 173.1
Nuclear 62.1 74.1 70.2 36.7 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3
H2 – – 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.7
BECCS – – – – 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3
Bioenergy 6.2 6.9 6.9 5.0 2.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oil CCS – – – – – – 0.0 – –
Oil 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS – – – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1
Gas CCS (Retr.) – – – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas 143.0 74.1 92.1 43.9 8.8 8.8 5.1 0.3 0.0
Man. fuels 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1
Coal 98.9 75.9 0.9 – – – – – –

[Figure 11 ends]

Figure 12: Carbon dioxide sequestration, MtCO2

12a CCS and engineered removals

Steer
Commodity Set 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Emissions gap – – – – -26.60
Fossil CCS – Industry -0.58 -1.58 -3.60 -7.79 -11.97
Fossil CCS – H2 production -1.80 -4.70 -9.37 -16.89 -18.10
Fossil CCS – Power generation 0.00 -1.15 -0.01 -9.58 -10.32
BECCS – H2 production 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BECCS – Power generation -5.87 -14.21 -18.23 -27.70 -33.88
Direct Air Capture (DAC) – -1.80 -4.10 -8.40 -15.33
Shift
Commodity Set 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Emissions gap – – – – –
Fossil CCS – Industry -0.39 -1.58 -3.57 -7.50 -11.54
Fossil CCS – H2 production -1.80 -4.70 -9.37 -16.89 -28.51
Fossil CCS – Power generation 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.81
BECCS – H2 production 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BECCS – Power generation -5.87 -15.33 -21.35 -31.36 -37.00
Direct Air Capture (DAC) – – – – –
Transform
Commodity Set 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Emissions gap – – – – –
Fossil CCS – Industry -0.34 -1.05 -2.81 -5.62 -7.52
Fossil CCS – H2 production -1.26 -3.52 -7.47 -13.84 -24.22
Fossil CCS – Power generation 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.70
BECCS – H2 production 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BECCS – Power generation 0.00 0.00 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20
Direct Air Capture (DAC) – – – – –

12b Nature-based removals

Steer
Process Set 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Afforestation – -0.03 -0.44 -1.13 -1.80 -2.43 -3.15
Energy forestry 0.00 -1.00 -1.68 -1.66 -1.64 -1.62 -1.59
Soil sequestration -0.75 -1.60 -2.45 -2.99 -3.27 -3.54 -3.81
Shift
Process Set 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Afforestation – -0.17 -2.37 -6.15 -9.76 -13.20 -17.12
Energy forestry 0.00 -4.93 -8.62 -9.05 -8.96 -8.85 -8.72
Soil sequestration -0.75 -1.60 -2.45 -2.99 -3.27 -3.54 -3.81
Transform
Process Set 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Afforestation – -0.35 -4.75 -12.29 -19.52 -26.40 -34.24
Energy forestry 0.00 0.00 -4.73 -12.41 -15.82 -16.69 -17.89
Soil sequestration -0.75 -1.60 -2.45 -2.99 -3.27 -3.54 -3.81

[Figure 12 ends]

Figure 13

13a Change in energy system cost relative to 2020

Scenario 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Steer 0% 16% 33% 44% 53% 61% 68%
Steer_CB 0% 46% 57% 65% 71% 69% 76%
Shift 0% 4% 7% 14% 19% 21% 30%
Shift_CB 0% 7% 10% 17% 24% 25% 30%
Transform 0% -6% -13% -8% -6% -6% -1%
Transform_CB 0% -5% -10% -6% -3% -5% -1%

13b Difference in system cost relative to Steer demand scenario

Scenario 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Steer 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Steer_CB 0% 26% 18% 14% 12% 5% 5%
Shift 0% -10% -20% -21% -22% -25% -23%
Shift_CB 0% -8% -17% -19% -19% -22% -23%
Transform 0% -19% -34% -36% -38% -42% -41%
Transform_CB 0% -18% -32% -35% -37% -41% -41%

[Figure 13 ends]

Figure 14: Cumulative CO2 emissions, MtCO2

Year Steer Transform Transform_CB
2020 1,118 1,118 1,118
2025 2,783 2,658 2,354
2030 3,863 3,752 3,197
2035 4,506 4,391 3,695
2040 4,866 4,765 3,909
2045 4,957 4,839 3,892
2050 4,931 4,712 3,765

[Figure 14 ends]

Appendix

Figure A2: Total energy consumption, petajoules

a) Buildings – shelter
Scenario Year Solar Heat Electricity Hydrogen Biogas Bioenergy Coal Oil Gas
Ignore 2020 0 52 421 – 0 3 9 52 1,289
2025 0 62 420 0 0 2 – 36 1,236
2030 0 73 417 0 0 0 – 36 1,208
2035 0 72 428 0 0 0 – 35 1,222
2040 0 72 432 0 0 0 – 39 1,232
2045 0 100 436 0 0 0 – 43 1,217
2050 0 120 431 0 0 0 – 47 1,209
Steer 2020 0 52 421 – 0 3 9 52 1,289
2025 0 91 447 0 0 2 – 9 1,205
2030 0 161 465 0 0 0 – 9 1,089
2035 0 249 572 24 0 0 – 0 816
2040 0 388 653 96 0 0 – 0 450
2045 0 435 748 158 0 0 – 0 133
2050 0 443 761 156 0 0 – 0 0
Shift 2020 0 52 394 – 0 3 9 52 1,289
2025 0 77 418 0 0 2 – 9 1,198
2030 1 102 407 0 0 0 – 9 1,105
2035 1 131 454 15 0 0 – 0 965
2040 1 195 539 33 0 0 – 0 699
2045 1 207 614 135 0 0 – 0 359
2050 0 245 681 230 0 0 – 0 0
Transform 2020 0 52 394 – 0 3 9 52 1,289
2025 0 51 380 0 – 2 – 9 1,197
2030 0 50 338 0 0 0 – 9 1,114
2035 0 49 358 19 0 0 – 0 942
2040 0 69 402 39 0 6 – 0 741
2045 0 82 459 94 0 16 – 0 420
2050 0 98 523 218 0 20 – 0 0
b) Buildings – non-domestic
Scenario Year Heat Electricity Hydrogen Biogas Bioenergy Wastes Oil Gas
Ignore 2020 18.5 275.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 14.6 433.5
2025 17.3 264.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 4.9 444.5
2030 14.1 269.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 8.6 459.6
2035 11.8 273.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 20.8 460.2
2040 14.6 284.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 37.1 462.7
2045 19.6 296.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 63.0 463.5
2050 24.4 315.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 98.6 463.1
Steer 2020 18.5 275.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 14.6 433.5
2025 41.0 299.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 5.1 383.3
2030 116.0 296.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0 255.0
2035 123.1 350.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 135.8
2040 121.0 391.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.5 0.0 69.9
2045 113.9 438.1 0.0 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.9
2050 109.7 473.4 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
Shift 2020 18.5 275.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 14.6 433.5
2025 16.3 251.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.2 4.9 404.7
2030 13.9 256.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 7.8 0.0 352.1
2035 17.8 299.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 8.1 0.0 232.1
2040 17.9 326.0 0.0 3.4 2.4 6.1 0.0 164.1
2045 17.8 391.2 0.0 9.9 0.0 9.0 0.0 46.2
2050 23.7 438.8 6.1 18.6 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
Transform 2020 18.5 275.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 14.6 433.5
2025 16.5 224.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 11.0 393.6
2030 15.0 226.8 0.0 – 0.0 6.8 5.8 317.3
2035 12.3 237.6 0.0 2.4 0.0 6.6 5.9 236.6
2040 18.8 261.6 0.0 11.4 0.0 6.5 0.0 131.7
2045 39.4 258.8 0.0 19.6 1.8 6.6 0.0 80.6
2050 60.3 287.9 0.0 30.3 8.5 – 0.0 0.0
c) Mobility
Scenario Year Electricity Hydrogen Ammonia Biofuels Synthetic kerosene Oil Coal Gas
Ignore 2020 24 0 0 6 – 2,177 0 9
2025 33 0 0 0 – 2,330 0 12
2030 43 0 0 22 0 2,196 0 14
2035 57 0 0 41 0 2,054 0 16
2040 76 0 0 32 0 1,931 0 18
2045 102 0 0 33 0 1,761 0 23
2050 141 0 0 33 0 1,567 – 28
Steer 2020 24 0 0 6 – 2,177 0 9
2025 46 6 6 4 – 2,137 0 15
2030 116 30 14 125 0 1,510 0 39
2035 256 80 26 103 0 893 0 52
2040 343 115 30 124 0 561 0 27
2045 362 119 81 10 31 519 0 6
2050 360 116 76 10 62 471 – 7
Shift 2020 24 0 0 6 – 2,177 0 9
2025 50 3 0 4 – 1,973 0 12
2030 124 16 0 78 0 1,320 0 16
2035 221 48 1 146 0 719 0 18
2040 246 97 9 136 0 473 0 17
2045 247 110 28 165 0 318 0 15
2050 242 118 76 162 0 219 – 7
Transform 2020 24 0 0 6 – 2,177 0 9
2025 46 2 0 12 – 1,775 0 12
2030 96 10 0 51 – 1,161 0 14
2035 167 26 0 118 – 680 0 16
2040 192 72 0 153 – 430 0 18
2045 201 101 6 177 – 257 0 19
2050 197 108 22 174 – 191 – 17
d) Materials & products (industry)
Scenario Year Electricity Wastes Hydrogen Bioenergy Biogas Gas Non-energy use Oil Coal
Ignore 2020 291.8 65.3 0.0 0.0 14.8 428.9 170.9 128.9 214.6
2025 277.8 48.3 0.0 17.5 11.3 394.9 148.4 87.8 287.5
2030 264.1 32.4 0.0 50.0 14.2 355.8 140.5 47.3 338.4
2035 246.4 16.3 0.0 72.9 18.9 332.9 132.8 6.7 383.2
2040 238.2 16.8 0.0 75.3 16.5 292.7 134.4 6.7 484.5
2045 235.2 20.0 0.0 81.4 10.0 316.2 139.4 6.9 486.6
2050 234.1 22.5 0.0 87.4 5.0 316.6 144.8 7.1 512.2
Steer 2020 291.8 65.3 0.0 0.0 14.8 428.9 170.9 128.9 214.6
2025 288.6 50.6 1.8 21.8 20.2 404.3 148.4 88.2 229.8
2030 443.8 46.5 35.4 35.3 39.2 297.8 141.8 46.7 97.0
2035 629.8 37.2 71.4 15.2 40.9 109.3 138.2 5.6 77.6
2040 616.3 29.9 113.3 32.4 40.5 88.7 144.2 5.0 68.4
2045 607.9 35.7 221.9 8.0 27.8 39.7 156.2 4.1 64.5
2050 502.1 23.6 356.1 16.2 50.4 11.3 175.0 1.5 71.0
Shift 2020 291.8 65.3 0.0 0.0 14.8 428.9 170.9 128.9 214.6
2025 275.1 45.9 11.9 33.5 20.2 407.2 147.6 87.7 207.8
2030 258.2 37.9 33.8 54.6 23.1 464.9 138.5 47.0 96.2
2035 236.0 20.0 70.0 81.3 40.9 427.5 133.8 5.4 65.9
2040 235.4 15.8 130.5 104.8 45.3 335.0 134.9 4.8 57.1
2045 221.0 17.1 231.6 111.1 50.1 243.7 145.1 3.7 57.4
2050 246.2 21.8 438.5 113.5 89.2 0.0 159.8 11.8 66.1
Transform 2020 291.8 65.3 0.0 0.0 14.8 428.9 170.9 128.9 214.6
2025 266.0 50.9 4.6 27.1 10.1 350.1 145.9 87.2 222.9
2030 242.5 30.9 14.3 61.3 12.9 345.2 135.5 46.5 163.8
2035 214.8 14.4 40.2 94.6 43.1 311.2 124.3 5.7 108.8
2040 202.1 18.6 90.7 102.6 64.5 241.0 122.5 5.6 83.2
2045 196.2 23.2 172.0 105.9 108.5 162.2 131.9 4.6 42.3
2050 193.5 12.3 316.4 122.3 128.4 0.0 144.4 13.2 44.9

[Figure A2 ends]

Figure A3: Cumulative sequestration, CO2(Mt)

a) CCS and removals
Type Steer Shift Transform
Emissions gap 133.0 – –
Fossil CCS – Industry 127.6 122.9 86.7
Fossil CCS – H2 production 254.2 306.3 251.5
Fossil CCS – Power generation 105.3 4.0 13.5
BECCS – H2 production 0.0 0.0 0.0
BECCS – Power generation 499.5 554.6 3.0
Direct Air Capture (DAC) 148.1 – –
b) Nature-based solutions
Type Steer Shift Transform
Afforestation 44.7 243.0 486.0
Energy forestry 41.0 221.0 337.7
Soil sequestration 80.3 80.3 80.3

[Figure A3 ends]

Figure A4: Power generation capacity, GW

Steer
Generation type 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Storage 2.7 2.4 15.1 44.4 72.7
Imports 3.8 6.8 11.3 11.3 11.3
CHP 4.7 4.2 1.5 0.0 0.0
Geothermal – 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0
Hydro 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.7
Solar PV 0.1 13.8 31.2 68.8 105.7
Offshore wind 1.3 10.7 40.0 62.3 66.3
Onshore wind 3.9 15.5 43.7 65.1 72.2
Nuclear 10.3 8.9 7.2 10.0 15.3
H2 – 0.0 2.6 9.4 26.9
BECCS – – 1.0 3.1 5.8
Bioenergy 2.1 5.7 4.0 1.3 0.0
Oil CCS – – 0.0 0.2 1.7
Oil 4.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS – – 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS (Retr.) – – 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas 30.6 26.6 25.2 24.2 0.0
Man. fuels 0.2 0.2 2.5 2.8 2.2
Coal 28.8 9.9 – – –
Shift
Generation type 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Storage 2.7 2.4 13.2 40.4 56.2
Imports 3.8 6.8 11.3 11.3 11.3
CHP 4.7 4.2 1.5 0.0 0.0
Geothermal – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.7
Solar PV 0.1 13.8 13.8 43.3 81.9
Offshore wind 1.3 10.7 40.0 45.4 49.4
Onshore wind 3.9 15.5 28.7 50.1 72.2
Nuclear 10.3 8.9 3.2 3.2 7.2
H2 – 0.0 2.6 9.4 26.9
BECCS – – 1.0 3.6 6.3
Bioenergy 2.1 5.7 4.0 1.3 0.0
Oil CCS – – 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oil 4.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS – – 0.0 0.0 0.3
Gas CCS (Retr.) – – 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas 30.6 26.6 17.3 4.2 0.0
Man. fuels 0.2 0.2 2.5 2.6 2.7
Coal 28.8 9.9 – – –
Transform
Generation type 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Storage 2.7 2.4 4.1 20.2 46.2
Imports 3.8 6.8 11.3 11.3 11.3
CHP 4.7 4.2 2.3 0.9 0.0
Geothermal – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.7
Solar PV 0.1 13.8 13.8 24.1 62.7
Offshore wind 1.3 10.7 40.0 40.0 40.3
Onshore wind 3.9 15.5 15.5 36.9 61.4
Nuclear 10.3 8.9 3.2 3.2 3.2
H2 – 0.0 2.6 9.4 19.7
BECCS – – 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bioenergy 2.1 5.7 4.0 1.3 0.0
Oil CCS – – – – 0.0
Oil 4.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Gas CCS – – 0.0 0.0 0.9
Gas CCS (Retr.) – – 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas 30.6 26.6 23.4 11.7 0.0
Man. fuels 0.2 0.2 1.3 2.6 2.5
Coal 28.8 9.9 – – –
Total
Scenario 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Steer 94.5 106.8 188.1 306.5 382.8
Shift 94.5 106.8 140.9 216.4 315.1
Transform 94.5 106.8 123.3 163.0 249.0

[Figure A4 ends]

Figure A5: Transport demand, billions vehicle km

a) Car demand
Scenario Year Electric LPG Diesel Petrol Hybrid Hydrogen Natural gas
Ignore 2020 6.1 2.9 101.8 344.4 0.2 – –
2025 15.3 0.0 8.5 442.7 0.0 – –
2030 29.1 0.0 0.0 446.1 0.0 – 0.0
2035 49.9 0.0 0.0 434.3 0.0 – 0.0
2040 81.1 0.0 0.0 409.5 0.0 – 0.0
2045 128.1 0.0 0.0 370.2 0.0 – 0.0
2050 198.7 0.0 0.0 308.9 0.0 – 0.0
Steer 2020 6.1 2.9 101.8 344.4 0.2 – –
2025 28.8 0.0 147.1 233.7 56.8 0.0 0.0
2030 113.0 0.0 138.7 77.7 145.8 0.0 0.0
2035 313.0 0.0 58.3 0.0 112.9 0.0 0.0
2040 453.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.4 0.0 0.0
2045 498.3 – – – – 0.0 –
2050 507.7 – – – – 0.0 –
Shift 2020 6.1 2.9 101.8 344.4 0.2 – –
2025 28.8 0.0 8.5 347.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
2030 113.0 0.0 0.0 192.8 6.4 0.0 0.0
2035 235.8 0.0 0.0 49.2 6.4 0.0 0.0
2040 265.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0
2045 244.5 – – – – 0.0 –
2050 221.8 – – – – 0.0 –
Transform 2020 6.1 2.9 101.8 344.4 0.2 – –
2025 20.2 0.0 8.5 298.5 0.0 – –
2030 65.4 0.0 142.5 0.0 – –
2035 164.3 0.0 27.3 0.0 – –
2040 173.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 – –
2045 155.3 – – – – – –
2050 138.2 – – – – – –
b) Bus demand
Scenario Year Electric Diesel Hybrid Hydrogen Natural gas
Ignore 2020 – 4.33 – –
2025 0.09 4.35 – – 0.00
2030 0.21 4.32 – – 0.00
2035 0.36 4.25 – – 0.00
2040 0.56 4.14 – – 0.00
2045 0.80 3.96 0.00 – 0.00
2050 1.12 3.74 0.00 0.00 0.00
Steer 2020 – 4.33 – – –
2025 0.09 4.25 0.00 0.00 0.09
2030 0.44 3.65 0.00 0.06 0.38
2035 1.65 2.53 0.00 0.06 0.38
2040 3.42 0.70 0.00 0.28 0.28
2045 3.81 0.00 0.00 0.95 0.00
2050 3.88 – 0.97 –
Shift 2020 – 4.33 – – –
2025 0.09 7.46 0.00 0.00
2030 0.44 10.52 0.00 0.00 0.00
2035 1.72 10.33 0.00 0.02 0.00
2040 6.47 6.57 0.00 0.14 0.00
2045 11.45 2.34 0.00 0.53 0.00
2050 12.41 1.41 0.00 1.70 0.00
Transform 2020 – 4.33 – – –
2025 0.09 8.70 – – –
2030 0.44 12.93 – – –
2035 1.72 12.73 – – 0.00
2040 6.47 8.96 – 0.09 0.00
2045 12.88 3.43 – 0.31 0.00
2050 14.21 2.51 – 1.04 –
c) LGV demand
Scenario Year Electric LPG Diesel Petrol Hybrid Hydrogen Natural gas
Ignore 2020 3.1 0.0 84.4 0.9 0.0 – 0.0
2025 5.9 0.0 86.4 6.1 0.0 – 0.0
2030 10.1 0.0 86.6 15.3 0.0 – 0.0
2035 16.4 0.0 88.3 18.7 0.0 – 0.0
2040 25.9 0.0 87.3 21.8 0.0 – 0.0
2045 40.2 0.0 81.7 23.7 0.0 – 0.0
2050 61.7 0.0 70.2 23.4 0.0 – 0.0
Steer 2020 3.1 0.0 84.4 0.9 0.0 – 0.0
2025 12.7 1.2 78.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
2030 48.5 5.0 33.7 0.0 12.1 0.0 5.0
2035 101.2 3.8 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.0 3.8
2040 135.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2045 145.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2050 155.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shift 2020 3.1 0.0 84.4 0.9 0.0 – 0.0
2025 12.7 1.2 71.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
2030 48.5 5.0 32.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2
2035 89.9 3.8 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
2040 109.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2045 118.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2050 125.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Transform 2020 3.1 0.0 84.4 0.9 0.0 – 0.0
2025 12.7 1.2 68.0 4.1 0.0 – 0.0
2030 48.5 5.0 26.6 4.1 0.0 – 0.0
2035 85.0 3.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 – 0.0
2040 99.9 – 0.0 – – – –
2045 107.0 – 0.0 – – – –
2050 113.0 – – – – – –
d) HGV demand
Scenario Year Diesel Hybrid Hydrogen Electric
Ignore 2020 30.51 0.00 – –
2025 32.19 0.00 – –
2030 33.21 0.68 0.00
2035 25.27 10.26 0.00 0.00
2040 22.49 14.75 0.00 0.00
2045 23.05 15.41 0.45 0.00
2050 15.88 23.75 1.02 0.00
Steer 2020 30.51 0.00 – –
2025 30.06 0.00 1.29 0.50
2030 24.60 0.68 5.21 2.04
2035 4.86 3.56 17.20 6.73
2040 0.00 1.38 26.07 8.67
2045 0.00 0.00 27.23 11.67
2050 – 0.00 28.46 12.20
Shift 2020 30.51 0.00 – –
2025 28.58 0.00 0.42 0.50
2030 22.82 0.56 2.56 2.04
2035 6.33 6.93 9.10 6.73
2040 0.00 7.94 19.86 2.51
2045 0.00 7.12 22.08 2.34
2050 0.00 6.31 22.96 3.53
Transform 2020 30.51 0.00 – –
2025 28.20 0.00 0.10 –
2030 24.03 0.51 1.09 –
2035 11.29 11.05 4.20 0.00
2040 1.85 11.61 14.10 0.00
2045 0.00 8.58 20.01 0.00
2050 0.00 8.87 20.71 0.00

[Figure A5 ends]

Figure A6: Residential heat demand, useful heat, petajoules

Ignore
Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Standalone space heating 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Standalone water heating 26.2 33.7 36.7 40.4 45.0 48.0 50.9
Bioenergy boiler 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal boiler 4.1 – – – – – –
Oil boiler 31.2 31.5 32.4 30.9 34.7 37.8 41.6
Network heat 37.3 44.8 52.2 51.5 51.9 72.4 86.2
Other micro-CHP – – 1.2 3.0 6.0 10.9 18.7
H2 boiler – 0.0 0.0 39.8 75.0 105.5 105.5
H2 boiler + solar – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
H2FC micro-CHP – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hybrid heat pump – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler 1.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric heat pump 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric HP + solar – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric resistive 72.8 87.5 85.6 87.6 90.2 90.9 91.3
Gas boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas boiler 997.5 991.2 986.4 945.9 900.5 839.9 811.8
Steer
Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Standalone space heating 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Standalone water heating 26.2 32.8 35.6 38.1 42.6 44.8 43.7
Bioenergy boiler 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal boiler 4.1 – – – – – –
Oil boiler 31.2 7.9 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Network heat 37.3 65.3 115.8 179.4 279.7 313.3 319.0
Other micro-CHP – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
H2 boiler – 0.0 0.0 21.6 111.5 139.8 138.5
H2 boiler + solar – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
H2FC micro-CHP – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hybrid heat pump – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler 1.9 4.9 4.2 37.9 33.6 33.6 0.0
Electric boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric heat pump 0.3 0.2 20.9 126.8 290.3 461.4 620.7
Electric HP + solar – – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric resistive 72.8 89.7 88.2 92.4 87.1 95.8 84.1
Gas boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas boiler 997.5 988.8 921.8 703.3 358.6 118.2 0.0
Shift
Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Standalone space heating 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Standalone water heating 26.2 34.2 37.5 33.8 36.6 30.0 27.4
Bioenergy boiler 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal boiler 4.1 – – – – – –
Oil boiler 31.2 7.9 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Network heat 37.3 55.4 73.6 94.4 140.4 149.2 176.1
Other micro-CHP – – 1.2 3.0 3.0 1.9 0.0
H2 boiler – 8.5 20.3 20.3 105.8 158.0 204.1
H2 boiler + solar – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
H2FC micro-CHP – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hybrid heat pump – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler 1.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler + solar 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric heat pump 0.3 17.7 35.9 105.5 269.1 447.0 643.8
Electric HP + solar – 0.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 2.9 0.0
Electric resistive 72.8 86.4 85.1 87.5 87.5 90.0 84.5
Gas boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas boiler 997.5 973.8 920.4 832.4 520.0 269.2 0.0
Transform
Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Standalone space heating 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Standalone water heating 26.2 35.3 41.8 37.0 45.0 49.8 54.7
Bioenergy boiler 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal boiler 4.1 – – – – – –
Oil boiler 31.2 7.9 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Network heat 37.3 36.6 36.0 35.3 49.3 59.2 70.3
Other micro-CHP – – 1.2 5.6 10.1 16.1 15.0
H2 boiler – 4.0 23.1 43.2 170.3 194.9 193.1
H2 boiler + solar – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
H2FC micro-CHP – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hybrid heat pump – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler 1.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric heat pump 0.3 18.0 17.9 90.5 169.0 305.5 474.5
Electric HP + solar – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electric resistive 72.8 85.6 78.0 66.8 59.1 49.4 39.9
Gas boiler + solar 0.0 0.0 – 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gas boiler 997.5 977.5 915.4 772.7 468.5 226.5 0.0

[Figure A6 ends]

Figure A7: Annual investment, £ billion

Steer
Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imports 0.22 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52
CHP 0.11 0.10 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.54 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08
Hydro 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.22
Solar PV 1.26 1.36 2.10 3.04 3.27 3.40 4.04
Offshore wind 3.22 7.21 10.79 12.70 14.12 13.32 12.90
Onshore wind 1.85 3.59 5.23 6.81 7.50 8.19 7.98
Nuclear 1.12 2.00 2.97 4.84 4.69 6.45 7.14
H2 0.00 0.06 0.15 0.29 0.53 0.90 1.50
BECCS – – 0.54 1.31 1.68 2.55 3.12
Bioenergy 0.71 0.65 0.59 0.57 0.42 0.00 0.00
Oil CCS – – 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.60 0.65
Oil 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas CCS – – 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas CCS (Retr.) – – 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas 0.26 0.32 0.48 0.65 0.45 0.20 0.00
Man. fuels 0.01 0.04 0.12 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.11
Coal 0.32 – – – – – –
Shift
Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imports 0.22 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52
CHP 0.11 0.10 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.22
Solar PV 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.86 2.10 2.22 2.96
Offshore wind 3.22 7.21 10.79 10.65 10.45 9.65 9.24
Onshore wind 1.85 1.85 3.49 5.06 5.75 6.45 7.98
Nuclear 1.12 0.59 1.09 1.09 1.50 1.50 3.35
H2 0.00 0.06 0.15 0.29 0.53 0.90 1.51
BECCS – – 0.54 1.42 1.97 2.89 3.41
Bioenergy 0.71 0.65 0.59 0.57 0.42 0.00 0.00
Oil CCS – – 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Oil 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas CCS – – 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06
Gas CCS (Retr.) – – 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas 0.26 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.08 0.00 0.00
Man. fuels 0.01 0.04 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13
Coal 0.32 – – – – – –
Transform
Technology 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imports 0.22 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52
CHP 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.00
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.22
Solar PV 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.28 1.32 1.44 2.17
Offshore wind 3.22 7.21 10.79 10.09 9.27 7.70 7.28
Onshore wind 1.85 1.85 2.01 3.58 4.27 4.97 6.50
Nuclear 1.12 0.59 1.09 1.09 1.50 1.50 1.50
H2 0.00 0.06 0.15 0.29 0.53 0.90 1.11
BECCS – – 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02
Bioenergy 0.71 0.65 0.59 0.57 0.42 0.00 0.00
Oil CCS – – – – – 0.00 0.00
Oil 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas CCS – – 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22
Gas CCS (Retr.) – – 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gas 0.26 0.33 0.44 0.43 0.22 0.01 0.00
Man. fuels 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.06 0.13 0.12 0.12
Coal 0.32 – – – – – –

[Figure A7 ends]

Figure A8: Transport investment, £ billions

Steer
Sector 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Aviation – domestic 0.10 0.39 0.60 0.80 1.02 1.08 1.16
Aviation – international 2.33 5.63 8.08 10.82 13.92 15.04 16.09
Rail – freight 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
Rail – passenger 0.25 0.37 0.63 0.70 0.77 0.85 0.95
HGVs 4.31 4.48 5.33 6.17 5.87 6.22 6.31
LGVs 14.33 15.47 16.57 16.57 16.45 16.88 17.11
Buses 1.11 2.01 2.03 2.03 1.99 2.04 2.01
2 wheelers 0.59 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.65 0.70
Cars 51.72 56.87 55.32 50.97 50.73 47.24 46.65
Shift
Sector 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Aviation – domestic 0.10 0.25 0.41 0.60 0.79 0.79 0.81
Aviation – international 2.33 3.30 5.04 7.03 9.39 9.63 9.77
Rail – freight 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
Rail – passenger 0.25 0.55 0.85 1.00 1.15 1.30 1.48
HGVs 4.31 3.81 4.18 4.78 4.62 4.77 4.91
LGVs 14.33 14.15 13.28 13.19 13.39 13.69 13.81
Buses 1.11 3.37 4.81 5.27 5.53 5.69 6.14
2 wheelers 0.59 1.35 2.16 2.70 3.21 4.06 4.87
Cars 51.72 43.94 30.94 29.88 27.94 21.59 20.32
Transform
Sector 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Aviation – domestic 0.10 0.16 0.29 0.47 0.66 0.66 0.67
Aviation – international 2.33 2.33 2.66 4.57 6.90 7.11 7.22
Rail – freight 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06
Rail – passenger 0.25 0.63 0.99 1.12 1.25 1.38 1.54
HGVs 4.31 3.48 3.61 4.00 4.16 4.23 4.31
LGVs 14.33 13.55 12.08 11.97 12.18 12.40 12.45
Buses 1.11 3.91 5.87 6.31 6.56 6.57 6.93
2 wheelers 0.59 2.25 3.84 4.14 4.40 5.05 5.64
Cars 51.72 36.23 17.03 20.09 18.80 12.61 13.27

[Figure A8 ends]